Predict where tech is going,
not where it's been.
Surf Stakes aggregates collective knowledge about tech outcomes — AI breakthroughs, product launches, industry shifts. Make your forecast, see what the community thinks, and learn from where you agree and where you diverge.
Collective intelligence, made visible
Every forecast contributes to a shared signal. Watch how collective thinking shifts as new information emerges — the crowd is often wiser than any single expert.
See what the crowd thinks
Every question is hand-picked: AI capability milestones, open-source races, product launches. Focused on the topics where collective knowledge actually matters.
Learn from each other
The leaderboard shows who has been consistently well-calibrated — not just lucky. Find the forecasters worth listening to, and see where the community's blind spots are.
What the community is forecasting
open
Resolves 31 Dec 2026Which lab will release the highest-scoring publicly benchmarked frontier general-purpose model by December 31, 2026?
open
Resolves 31 Dec 2026Which open-source model family will be #1 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena at year-end 2026?
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Resolves 31 Dec 2026Which browser engine will have the largest global usage share in December 2026?
How it works
Join for free
Sign up with Google or GitHub. You get a starting balance of play-money points automatically — no deposit, no credit card.
Explore the questions
Browse curated questions about the future of tech. See what the community currently thinks on each one — the probability bars show the collective view in real time.
Add your forecast
Share your view by choosing an outcome. Your forecast joins the collective signal — and you can see exactly where you agree or disagree with the crowd.
Learn when it resolves
When the outcome is confirmed, everyone learns together. Accurate forecasters earn points and rise on the leaderboard — a signal of who to pay attention to.
Add your voice to the crowd.
Explore what the community is forecasting, or sign in to contribute your own predictions and see how your thinking compares.
Free play-money · No credit card · Open to everyone